<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?><!-- generator=Zoho Sites --><rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><atom:link href="https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/Case-Studies/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><title>Asset Intelligence - Blogs , Case Studies</title><description>Asset Intelligence - Blogs , Case Studies</description><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/Case-Studies</link><lastBuildDate>Sat, 02 May 2026 14:39:02 +0200</lastBuildDate><generator>http://zoho.com/sites/</generator><item><title><![CDATA[What about gold?]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/what-about-gold</link><description><![CDATA[With asset markets having been so turbulent over the past couple of years, it’s understandable that some investors may be pondering whether other opti ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_CYM3S5C6RuGcHak35zHd-g" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_OjTWGNKKQaqWiGvtIL54gQ" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_2pUfTe8kRjuPG6VQPQxcqQ" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_bX9qEdQ4C98G0NV83PyJuQ" data-element-type="image" class="zpelement zpelem-image "><style> @media (min-width: 992px) { [data-element-id="elm_bX9qEdQ4C98G0NV83PyJuQ"] .zpimage-container figure img { width: 500px ; height: 332.81px ; } } @media (max-width: 991px) and (min-width: 768px) { [data-element-id="elm_bX9qEdQ4C98G0NV83PyJuQ"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:500px ; height:332.81px ; } } @media (max-width: 767px) { [data-element-id="elm_bX9qEdQ4C98G0NV83PyJuQ"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:500px ; height:332.81px ; } } [data-element-id="elm_bX9qEdQ4C98G0NV83PyJuQ"].zpelem-image { border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-caption-color="" data-size-tablet="" data-size-mobile="" data-align="center" data-tablet-image-separate="false" data-mobile-image-separate="false" class="zpimage-container zpimage-align-center zpimage-size-medium zpimage-tablet-fallback-medium zpimage-mobile-fallback-medium hb-lightbox " data-lightbox-options="
                type:fullscreen,
                theme:dark"><figure role="none" class="zpimage-data-ref"><span class="zpimage-anchor" role="link" tabindex="0" aria-label="Open Lightbox" style="cursor:pointer;"><picture><img class="zpimage zpimage-style-none zpimage-space-none " src="/team/architecture-3260046_1920.jpg" width="500" height="332.81" loading="lazy" size="medium" data-lightbox="true"/></picture></span></figure></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_q3GkJ7rnSNSlsx5zORKOJw" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_q3GkJ7rnSNSlsx5zORKOJw"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div><b style="color:inherit;text-align:left;">With asset markets having been so turbulent over the past couple of years, it’s understandable that some investors may be pondering whether other options might be able to offer them higher returns and a smoother ride.</b><br></div><div style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;"><b><br></b></span></div><div style="text-align:left;"><span style="color:inherit;"><b>One of those options is more established than any stock or bond market, prized by mankind for as long back as the records go: gold.</b></span></div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">So how does gold stack up against conventional listed investments? Should investors leave stock markets behind and go ‘all in’ on bars and coins? Read on to learn more about the investment characteristics of the yellow metal.</span></p><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br></span></p><div style="color:inherit;"><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">Despite its perception as a safe haven, the price of gold is typically very volatile – more so than the stock market. Over the past 15 years, gold has an annualised volatility of 16.2% compared with 15.2% from the MSCI All Country World Index of shares.</span></li></ul><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">Worse, movements in the gold price can be unpredictable in that it is often unclear what is driving its price up or down.</span></li></ul><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">On that same front, the conventional idea of gold is that its ‘unique selling point’ is as definitive protection against inflation. However, correlation data shows that gold has actually has a very marginal&nbsp;<i>negative</i>&nbsp;relationship with UK inflation over the past 15 years. That means that on average, when prices have increased, the gold price has tended to fall slightly.</span></li></ul><div style="text-align:justify;"><br></div></div><div style="color:inherit;"><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%"><div><p><br></p><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:10pt;">[1]</span>&nbsp;FE Analytics as at 30 November 2023. ‘Gold’ refers to the S&amp;P GSCI Gold Spot index</p><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:10pt;">[2]</span>&nbsp;FE Analytics. ‘UK inflation’ refers to the UK Consumer Price Index</p><p style="text-align:justify;"><br></p><div style="color:inherit;"><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">All of that said, gold does tend to work as a long-term store of wealth. With returns of 169.2%, it has handily remained ahead of UK inflation (+53.9%), cash (+12.5%) and global bonds (+46.7%) over the past 15 years<span style="font-size:12pt;">[3]</span>…</span></li></ul><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">… though it has done less than half as well as the global stock market (+453.3%) over that timeframe<span style="font-size:12pt;">[4]</span>. Keep in mind too that the past 15 years have taken in any number of challenging events when one might have expected gold to shine: the financial crisis of 2008-09, the US credit rating downgrade, the Eurozone debt crisis, Brexit, the US-China trade war, COVID, the war in Ukraine and so on.</span></li></ul><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">Gold doesn’t really <i>do </i>anything. Owning shares gives one a stake in growing corporate earnings which will hopefully grow over time; in human ingenuity and ideas; in the future. Though pretty, gold doesn’t offer any of that. Further, at a time when financial assets offer high yields, it is worth bearing in mind that gold does not pay any interest or dividends either.</span></li></ul><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">Accessing gold can be difficult for retail investors. There are no open-ended funds (the most common type in the UK) which are dedicated to investing in the metal. This leaves three options:</span></li></ul><div style="text-align:justify;"><div style="color:inherit;"><ul><ul><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">buying an exchange-traded fund holding gold. These can incur hefty trading costs on some platforms;</span></li><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">buying an open-ended fund investing in the shares of gold mining companies. These are often extremely volatile and are subject to influence from corporate and stock market factors, in addition to those relating gold itself; or</span></li><li style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">buying physical bars or coins to store at home, which is a considerable security risk. Alternatively, if comprehensive security equipment is purchased to secure the assets, this would effectively represent a kind of ‘negative interest rate’ in terms of lost costs.</span></li></ul></ul><div><br></div></div></div>
<p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;color:inherit;text-align:left;">To finish, in most cases it would be unwise to rely on gold as a major component of a typical retail investor’s portfolio. There is arguably a case for a very modest position in some form: gold is such a differentiated asset class that a holding might improve&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:inherit;">overall portfolio diversification by providing an alternative driver of return. (Correlation data shows that gold typically has only a modest link to bonds and a very limited relationship with the stock market.)</span></p><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-size:12pt;">This is provided, of course, that the potential drawbacks are fully acknowledged and understood by investors too.</span></p></div><div><br clear="all"><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%"><div><p><br></p><div style="color:inherit;"><p><span style="font-size:10pt;">[3]</span> All figures from FE Analytics as at 30 November 2023. Gross returns with income reinvested, where applicable. ‘Cash’ refers to Bank Rate. ‘Global bonds’ refers to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate index hedged to Sterling</p><p><br></p><p><span style="font-size:10pt;">[4]</span> FE Analytics as at 30 November 2023. Gross returns with income reinvested, where applicable. ‘Global stock market’ refers to the MSCI All Country World Indecx</p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div><div data-element-id="elm_6EZygktBZhSKCZjTbxWpBw" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_6EZygktBZhSKCZjTbxWpBw"].zpsection{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_IuEY2MatoR1si-v8Q_IJnA" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items-flex-start zpjustify-content-flex-start zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_IuEY2MatoR1si-v8Q_IJnA"].zprow{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_4PySkhl0LLPqdLP6vxv2eg" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_4PySkhl0LLPqdLP6vxv2eg"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style></div>
</div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Thu, 30 Nov 2023 13:31:24 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Asset Intelligence Comment: Autumn Statement 2023]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/asset-intelligence-comment-autumn-statement-2023</link><description><![CDATA[By Kel Nwanuforo &nbsp; &nbsp; In existence and winning elections for almost two centuries, it is sometimes said that the Conservative and Unionist Part ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_CYM3S5C6RuGcHak35zHd-g" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_OjTWGNKKQaqWiGvtIL54gQ" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_2pUfTe8kRjuPG6VQPQxcqQ" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_Ya8QQ1bzrRGZyFZ0uvap7Q" data-element-type="image" class="zpelement zpelem-image "><style> @media (min-width: 992px) { [data-element-id="elm_Ya8QQ1bzrRGZyFZ0uvap7Q"] .zpimage-container figure img { width: 500px ; height: 300.00px ; } } @media (max-width: 991px) and (min-width: 768px) { [data-element-id="elm_Ya8QQ1bzrRGZyFZ0uvap7Q"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:500px ; height:300.00px ; } } @media (max-width: 767px) { [data-element-id="elm_Ya8QQ1bzrRGZyFZ0uvap7Q"] .zpimage-container figure img { width:500px ; height:300.00px ; } } [data-element-id="elm_Ya8QQ1bzrRGZyFZ0uvap7Q"].zpelem-image { border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-caption-color="" data-size-tablet="" data-size-mobile="" data-align="center" data-tablet-image-separate="false" data-mobile-image-separate="false" class="zpimage-container zpimage-align-center zpimage-size-medium zpimage-tablet-fallback-medium zpimage-mobile-fallback-medium hb-lightbox " data-lightbox-options="
                type:fullscreen,
                theme:dark"><figure role="none" class="zpimage-data-ref"><span class="zpimage-anchor" role="link" tabindex="0" aria-label="Open Lightbox" style="cursor:pointer;"><picture><img class="zpimage zpimage-style-none zpimage-space-none " src="/team/Untitled%20design%20-26-.png" width="500" height="300.00" loading="lazy" size="medium" data-lightbox="true"/></picture></span></figure></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_q3GkJ7rnSNSlsx5zORKOJw" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_q3GkJ7rnSNSlsx5zORKOJw"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div><br></div><div>By Kel Nwanuforo &nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>In existence and winning elections for almost two centuries, it is sometimes said that the Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the most successful political outfits in the history of democratic nations.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Analysts and historians often attribute this instinct for survival to the party’s ability to move with the times. And we have certainly seen Rishi Sunak make turbocharged use of this proclivity in recent weeks.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>In his first year he posed as a careful steward of stability, before pivoting recently to ‘man of change’, criticising the past three decades of British governments. This was then swiftly followed by inviting his predecessor-but-three, Lord Cameron, back into Cabinet as Foreign Secretary – which seemed a little at odds with the new message.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>And today we see yet another unexpected transformation – from inflation-buster to tax-cutter.</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Yes, the big news from Mr Sunak’s Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, today was the cut in the main rate of National Insurance from 12% to 10%. Given that up until a few weeks ago, both Prime Minister and Chancellor were claiming that high inflation meant it was no time to release more money into the economy via tax cuts, this was quite a change.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">We have seen good progress on wrestling annual price rises down. From a recent peak of 11.1% in the month Rishi Sunak took office, October 2022, the latest data shows the rate at 4.6%. This more than meets the government’s stated aim of halving inflation by the end of 2023. Yet at the same time, it doesn’t take an economic genius to see that we are still some way short of the official target of 2%.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Just perhaps, the change of heart has something to do with the government’s dire position in the polls. To be fair, the Chancellor was at pains to point out that the independent Office for Budget Responsibility forecaster (OBR) had assessed that his overall package today would contribute to bringing inflation down. Still, one cannot help but think inflation may yet have come down even further without these cuts coming so soon.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Elsewhere, there were bumper paydays for both pensions and wages. The Chancellor confirmed that the state pension will rise by 8.5% next year to match earnings, staying true to the stipulations of the ‘triple lock’. Meanwhile the National Living Wage will rise by a mammoth 9.8% – and will also extend to 21- and 22-year-olds for the first time.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">And what of the broader prospects for the economy? Here the news was a distinctly mixed bag. Projections for the government’s deficit and debt load were each improved, which was good to see. However, although we have so far avoided the recession predicted by the Bank of England and other forecasters, the OBR actually downgraded its economic growth forecasts for next year and the year after – from levels which were pretty meagre to start with.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Remember too that those forecasts take into account all the measures the Chancellor announced today. It therefore seems unlikely that the extended relief on business rates, expanded Enterprise Zones and ‘full expensing’ business investment tax cut will prove all that effective in juicing the economy.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Still, investors should keep in mind that it is often&nbsp;<em>not&nbsp;</em>the case that economies and stock markets move in lockstep. The UK market continues to play host to a number of high-quality companies trading at what appear to be attractive valuations, with much negativity now behind us and supportive interest rate cuts likely to be on the way at some point next year.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">So there we have it. If all the Autumn Statement excitement and changes of direction have been just too much for you, then get yourself down to the pub for a fortifying drink. No increase in alcohol duties until August (!)</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Key measures announced for England (national variations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may apply)</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Personal taxation&nbsp;</span></p><ul><li>Main rate of employee National Insurance to be cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January</li><li>Class 2 National Insurance – paid by self-employed people earning more than £12,570 – to be abolished entirely from April</li><li>Class 4 National Insurance – paid by self-employed people earning between £12,570 and £50,270 – to be cut from 9% to 8% from April</li></ul><ul><li>‘Full expensing’, allowing companies to deduct business investment from profits for taxation purposes, to be made permanent</li><li>75% business rates discount for retail, hospitality and leisure firms extended for another year</li><li>Alcohol duties frozen until 1 August</li></ul><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Wages, pensions and benefits</span></p><ul><li>The National Living Wage will rise from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour from next April, an increase of 9.8%</li><li>The state pension will rise by 8.5% from April, matching September’s rate of average earnings growth</li><li>Means-tested and disability benefits, will each rise by 6.7%, matching September’s rate of inflation</li><li>Reforms are to be instituted to the Work Capability Assessment for those looking to claim sickness-related out-of-work benefits, reflecting the increased availability of working from home since the pandemic</li></ul></div></div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div><div data-element-id="elm_bKByQzv7w6DMTTrZb0-okw" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_bKByQzv7w6DMTTrZb0-okw"].zpsection{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_44heafToaVRO0qBLQ95-8w" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items-flex-start zpjustify-content-flex-start zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_44heafToaVRO0qBLQ95-8w"].zprow{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_UMdaAoNbeKuhfO8-ugwqug" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_UMdaAoNbeKuhfO8-ugwqug"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style></div>
</div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Wed, 22 Nov 2023 14:34:43 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Asset Intelligence Comment: Budget 2023]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/asset-intelligence-comment-budget-2023</link><description><![CDATA[By Kel Nwanuforo &nbsp; &nbsp; It’s the simple questions which often land the best in politics. In 1980, while taking part in a TV debate with his oppone ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_LYWrWmjaRuivy2RDyOg-Fw" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_cXlZDGV-QNK-dO7fSRdyhg" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_odU8fSZWTT27IXfXy5J7-g" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_odU8fSZWTT27IXfXy5J7-g"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_t1I22qEwQJaBDUr2cGf-gQ" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_t1I22qEwQJaBDUr2cGf-gQ"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div style="text-align:left;"><em>By Kel Nwanuforo</em>&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="/team/garden-4565700_1920.jpg" style="text-align:center;"></div><div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>It’s the simple questions which often land the best in politics.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>In 1980, while taking part in a TV debate with his opponent President Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan famously asked Americans “Are you better off than you were four years ago?&quot;</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Well, Jimmy Carter did not stay President for long after that. Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt must be praying that the Conservatives can somehow avoid the same fate in next year’s general election.</strong>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Because while things appear less bleak than they did a few months back, the independent state forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was clear. Real household disposable income is still on course to fall by a cumulative 5.7% between 2022 and 2024 – the biggest two-year decline since records began in the 1950s.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">News that the UK is now projected to avoid a recession are likely to prove cold comfort for people continuing to struggle to pay the bills and keep a roof over their heads. (By the way, we will achieve this feat, according to the OBR, by shrinking in the current quarter and achieving zero growth in the second, thus interrupting two the consecutive quarters of shrinking output which constitute ‘a recession’. The UK economy is still projected to decline in size by 0.2% over 2023 as a whole.)&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">So the backdrop for the government, the UK economy and most importantly, ordinary citizens, remains challenged. It is also worth noting that OBR forecasts take account of policies contained within the Budget statement. So the improved childcare policies, greater pensions freedoms and new ‘investment zones’ are clearly not expected to have transformative effects. Perhaps the innovation of allowing businesses to fully offset their capital investments against their taxable profits might have landed with a greater punch had there been a clear commitment to continue it beyond a three-year period? Investment, in all forms, loves certainty. Just a thought.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">(Incidentally, can anyone recall a Chancellor who did <em>not</em> launch some variation of the ‘Investment Zone/Enterprise Zone/freeports’ theme? Even the short-lived Kwasi Kwarteng got one in…)&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Meanwhile, the silent squeeze from frozen tax thresholds continues to deepen. The Chancellor announced no increase to ISA contribution limits or to income tax levels. The latter in particular is a major revenue-raiser for the Treasury at a time of high nominal wage rises, dragging more and more people into higher tax bands.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">At least the screws from inflation should start to loosen shortly, according to the OBR. Annual price rises are now projected to slow from the current level of 10.1% to 2.9% by the end of the year, which if realised should feel like a welcome return to normality.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Progress on inflation will be aided by the Chancellor’s decision to retain the government’s Energy Price Guarantee at the level of £2,500 for a typical household’s use, rather than reducing support to a bill cap of £3,000 next quarter as previously planned.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">This is a welcome and sensible move, especially as the wholesale cost of gas has fallen sharply in recent months and thus eased the burden for the government. Yet lost in some of the commentary is that bills will still rise next month, as the £66- or £67-a-month government discounts applied since October have now come to an end.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Jeremy Hunt is working within difficult constraints during his time as Chancellor and it is fair to say that that limits his room for manoeuvre. Yet while many of the policy changes made within this Budget will have major benefits for individuals facing specific issues – particularly around pensions and childcare – it is less clear that they will have a big impact on either the macroeconomy or the living standards of the broader population.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">On the face of it then, the urbane and well-to-do Rishi Sunak appears to have little in common with the former peanut farmer from Georgia. But they could well both go down in the history books as being felled by the same tricky question… <strong>&nbsp;</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>The key measures in Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget announced for England (national variations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may apply)</strong> &nbsp;&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Wages, pensions and personal taxation</strong></div><ul><li style="text-align:left;">The Pensions Lifetime Allowance charge will be removed from April 2023, before the Allowance is abolished entirely in April 2024. The change means you will now be able to hold an unlimited amount within a pension without penalty</li><li style="text-align:left;">The Pensions Annual Allowance – how much you can contribute to a pension without penalty – will be raised from £40,000 to £60,000 from April 2023</li><li style="text-align:left;">The Money Purchase Annual Allowance – how much you can contribute to a pension without penalty after you have already begun to access it – will be raised from £4,000 to £10,000 in April 2023</li><li style="text-align:left;">The Fuel Duty freeze continues, including the effects of last year’s 5p/litre reduction in duty</li><li style="text-align:left;">A new “Brexit Pubs Guarantee” will ensure that duty on draught drinks will be up to 11p lower than that charged in supermarkets from 1 August</li><li style="text-align:left;">Tobacco duty will rise by Retail Price Inflation (RPI) plus 2% from 6pm today (RPI plus 6% for hand-rolling tobacco)</li></ul><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Energy</strong></div><ul><li style="text-align:left;">The government’s Energy Price Guarantee will be held at the current level of £2,500 for a typical household next quarter, rather than rising to £3,000 as previously planned</li></ul><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Other public policy</strong></div><ul><li style="text-align:left;">30 hours of free childcare for the working parents of all children over nine months old to be gradually introduced, starting in April 2024</li><li style="text-align:left;">‘Full expensing’ of capital investment in place for businesses for three years from April 2023, allowing the full cost of investment in IT, plant and machinery to be set against taxable profits</li><li style="text-align:left;">Skills, infrastructure and tax benefits for twelve new ‘Investment Zones’ spread across the UK</li></ul></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Thu, 16 Mar 2023 10:26:27 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Spring Budget 2023 - Overview]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/spring-budget-2023-overview</link><description><![CDATA[The key measures in Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget announced for England (national variations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may apply) Wages, p ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_NfVvix3JT1WphPuS07Ndew" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_0qQrDiK4TaWLuNsOv_iBxw" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_f51spgiJTruIw42TUKKP1w" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_7_2z8Im7RvW3j3ZrcjLT0A" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_7_2z8Im7RvW3j3ZrcjLT0A"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div style="text-align:left;"><img src="/team/Untitled%20design%20-26-.png" style="text-align:center;"><strong>The key measures in Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget announced for England (national variations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may apply)</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Wages, pensions and personal taxation</strong></div><ul><li style="text-align:left;">The Pensions Lifetime Allowance charge will be removed from April 2023, before the Allowance is abolished entirely in April 2024. The change means you will now be able to hold an unlimited amount within a pension without penalty</li><li style="text-align:left;">The Pensions Annual Allowance – how much you can contribute to a pension without penalty – will be raised from £40,000 to £60,000 from April 2023</li><li style="text-align:left;">The Money Purchase Annual Allowance – how much you can contribute to a pension without penalty after you have already begun to access it – will be raised from £4,000 to £10,000 in April 2023</li><li style="text-align:left;">The Fuel Duty freeze continues, including the effects of last year’s 5p/litre reduction in duty</li><li style="text-align:left;">A new “Brexit Pubs Guarantee” will ensure that duty on draught drinks will be up to 11p lower than that charged in supermarkets from 1 August</li><li style="text-align:left;">Tobacco duty will rise by Retail Price Inflation (RPI) plus 2% from 6pm today (RPI plus 6% for hand-rolling tobacco)</li></ul><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Energy</strong></div><ul><li style="text-align:left;">The government’s Energy Price Guarantee will be held at the current level of £2,500 for a typical household next quarter, rather than rising to £3,000 as previously planned</li></ul><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Other public policy</strong></div><ul><li style="text-align:left;">30 hours of free childcare for the working parents of all children over nine months old to be gradually introduced, starting in April 2024</li><li style="text-align:left;">‘Full expensing’ of capital investment in place for businesses for three years from April 2023, allowing the full cost of investment in IT, plant and machinery to be set against taxable profits</li><li style="text-align:left;">Skills, infrastructure and tax benefits for twelve new ‘Investment Zones’ spread across the UK<br></li></ul></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Wed, 15 Mar 2023 14:26:18 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Asset Intelligence Comment: Silicon Valley Bank failure]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/asset-intelligence-comment-silicon-valley-bank-failure</link><description><![CDATA[By Tony Mee Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was a medium-sized regional US bank that specialised in providing banking services to entrepreneurial technology ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_ExZB-_AjS6aRYpr03In2cQ" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_9jsAymbKRoCHk_tNHFwfxQ" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_ZJ9-q8nBRBKPaFdzB_ZBEA" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_PznQ7zRST7WgwUchvZjc3w" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_PznQ7zRST7WgwUchvZjc3w"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div><em>By Tony Mee</em></div><div style="text-align:left;"><img src="/team/stained-glass-1589648_1920.jpg"><strong>Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was a medium-sized regional US bank that specialised in providing banking services to entrepreneurial technology businesses within the US and UK.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>On Wednesday 8 March SVB notified the market that it was $2 billion short of capital. By Friday US regulators had closed the bank due to a frenzied run by depositors. While it has been operating in a difficult environment of fast-increasing interest rates, its failure was less about the banking system as a whole and more due to its own failures of risk control. SVB is now the largest bank failure in the US since the global financial crisis.</strong>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Typical banking protocol is mainly to invest deposit funds in short-dated bond products such as Treasury notes or bills. Yet SVB strayed from this by investing a major proportion of client deposits in long-dated bonds, chasing returns by seeking assets with higher yields. What ensued was catastrophic, as these highly interest rate-sensitive instruments deteriorated in value as the US central bank increased interest rates sharply to rein in inflation.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Clearly regulators are concerned about possible contagion from this banking failure. Over the weekend, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) stepped in to guarantee depositors’ funds. Additionally, the regulator has put SVB into administration and is seeking a banking partner to take over the bank.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">In the UK HSBC, Europe's largest bank, has agreed to buy the British arm of SVB, providing stability for UK depositors. This means that many fast-growing homegrown technology businesses will continue to have full access to their bank accounts and deposits.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">In terms of ramifications for markets, investors, traders and regulators will be keeping a keen eye on the banking and financial sectors over the coming days and weeks. With recent economic data proving strong, including a robust labour market, core inflation has started to pick up again. This has led to the market pricing in a higher terminal interest rate in the United States recently. However, many commentators are now suggesting that the Federal Reserve may pause hiking rates this month to evaluate the stability of the financial environment prior to resuming monetary tightening.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Asset Intelligence believes that the SVB news, as well as recent failures in major cryptocurrency infrastructure, will cool market sentiment for the time being. We are currently underweight both equity and bond risk. We will continue to monitor this situation keenly. &nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;"><em>Intended for Professional Financial Advisers only</em></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Mon, 13 Mar 2023 09:17:35 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Market Update February 2023]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/market-update-february-2023</link><description><![CDATA[<img align="left" hspace="5" src="https://www.asset-intelligence.com/Engine gears.jpg"/>Information correct at time of recording. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and the incom ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_vZUbnQ_ZS2G_0nrE4ztwXg" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_wWu45EyNSfSOoL8UA43PsQ" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_5S7FhiOXQoi454bE-UFdag" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_5S7FhiOXQoi454bE-UFdag"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_4nzqoEHAWLudVSVurnD92Q" data-element-type="iframe" class="zpelement zpelem-iframe "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_4nzqoEHAWLudVSVurnD92Q"].zpelem-iframe{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zpiframe-container zpiframe-align-center"><iframe class="zpiframe " src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/V53hTz0Pv5Y?si=iU8NQ-hSv0KkqOoZ" width="560" height="315" align="center" allowfullscreen frameBorder="0"></iframe></div>
</div></div><div data-element-id="elm_-SpRqqYOx-fhbjo9IaWGxQ" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- zpdefault-section zpdefault-section-bg "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_-SpRqqYOx-fhbjo9IaWGxQ"].zpelem-col{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div data-element-id="elm_4APBoWFbQuaTQf2NJyGpIw" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_4APBoWFbQuaTQf2NJyGpIw"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; margin-block-start:23px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div><div><br></div></div><div style="text-align:left;">Information correct at time of recording. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it could go down as well as up. The return at the end of the investment period is not guaranteed and you may get back less than you originally invested. Where referenced, market returns are quoted gross in Sterling terms.</div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2023 13:38:24 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Asset Intelligence Comment: Autumn Statement 2022]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/asset-intelligence-comment-autumn-statement-2022</link><description><![CDATA[By Kel Nwanuforo As has become even clearer since it was dissected every which way by the Sunday papers, ‘sunshine and lollipops’ this Autumn Statement ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_crV2Gsz1T9mn9qx1GqABWg" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_Jan9fzi8RGmWJcYhBlK7Bw" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_E-GQKVSDTR2Su5TtTH1RsA" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_kSHk2i4fRZ6jMy_gyVTNsw" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_kSHk2i4fRZ6jMy_gyVTNsw"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div><em>By Kel Nwanuforo</em></div><div><em><br></em></div><div><div style="text-align:left;"><img src="/team/WhatWD.jpg" style="text-align:center;"><strong>As has become even clearer since it was dissected every which way by the Sunday papers, ‘sunshine and lollipops’ this Autumn Statement was not.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Jeremy’s hunt for the UK’s credibility led to the Chancellor announcing a punishing package of spending cuts and tax rises – just as Britain embarks on the early phase of a two-year recession.</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>This was an early Christmas present that nobody wanted. Put simply, the situation now facing the average Brit is that of their taxes, mortgages and energy bills all heading in the same direction: up. Lumps of coal all round.</strong>&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">That said, one stakeholder <em>was</em> largely pleased – that faceless agglomeration we call ‘the markets’. In stark contrast to the reception meted out to Kwasi Kwarteng’s equivalent Statement two months ago – and does it not feel like longer than that? – the value of Sterling, as well as the cost of government borrowing, barely shifted in the hours after Mr Hunt’s speech. Both have recovered over the past few weeks.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">So the case can fairly be made that the Chancellor has done what he set out to do: prioritise financial stability and credibility above all other considerations. One of those, incidentally, is the little job of promoting economic growth, about which the Statement arguably did not have much to say. What a turnaround from the short-lived approach of Liz Truss.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Indeed, that was perhaps the most remarkable thing about this Statement. For the sheer, screeching ‘u-turn’ on the overall approach, as well as several individual policy measures, from the same political party within the space of less than two months, it is utterly unprecedented.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Remember: in September, Liz Truss and her ministers were telling us that the top rate of tax needed to be abolished to encourage wealth creators to set up in the UK – and that it did not raise much revenue anyway. Now under Rishi Sunak, the rate remains in place and its importance is apparently such that it now covers more workers than ever before.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Two months ago, the government did not believe in windfall taxes as they stifled investment in the energy sector. Now these have been increased and spread to electricity producers too.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Two months ago, the government prioritised fostering investment above almost all else. Now dividend and capital gains taxes have been raised considerably.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">So the optics are undoubtedly a bit odd. What about some of the substantive details?&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">One smart judgment in the package is that departmental spending cuts will only begin in 2025. Not only is this after the next general election – conveniently – it gives the economy breathing space in the short-term. (Like tax rises, government spending cuts stifle economic growth.) Cynics will wonder whether these cuts will ever actually happen – whichever party wins next time around.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">This is especially the case as the Chancellor has also resurrected another innovation: the government is now mandated to hit its debt targets on a <em>rolling </em>five-year basis. This means that, each year, as long as forecasts show that the government is on track to meet the goal within a five-year timeframe then it will deem to have passed the test. Again, cynics will note that on this basis, ‘five years hence’ never actually arrives…&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Another welcome policy is the large increase in the National Living Wage scheduled for April. This will of course make a real difference for low-paid workers struggling with high living costs. Yet there will also be a benefit to the economy as a whole. Those on lower pay tend to spend any extra cash rather than save, so this could help to prop economic output up over the months ahead.&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">And we will need all the help we can get on that score, as the latest projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) were grim indeed. According to the independent body’s latest forecasts, the UK is facing the steepest decline in real incomes in recorded history; half a million more jobless and a 9% fall in house prices over the next 18 months.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">The picture is undoubtedly difficult and for a significant number of people, the winter ahead will feel cold in more ways than one. Yet, with its ‘sound money’ approach, the new administration does at least seem to have won the confidence of the financial markets. When the economic storm clouds clear, in time, that could provide a platform for the UK’s attractively valued stock market to recover.</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;">Jeremy Hunt appears to be betting on it. &nbsp;&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>Key measures announced for England (national variations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may apply)</strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong><br></strong></div><div style="text-align:left;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Taxation</span></p><ul><li>The earnings threshold for the 45% additional rate of income tax will be lowered, from £150,000 per annum to £125,140</li><li>Key thresholds for other income tax bands, National Insurance and inheritance tax all frozen until April 2028</li><li>Dividend allowance to be cut from £2,000 to £1,000 in April, then reduced again to £500 in April 2024</li><li>Capital Gains Tax allowance to be cut from £12,300 to £6,000 in April, then reduced again to £3,000 in April 2024</li><li>Electric cars, vans and motorcycles to incur Vehicle Excise Duty from April 2025</li></ul><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Wages, pensions and benefits</span></p><ul><li>The National Living Wage will rise from £9.50 to £10.42 an hour from next April, a substantial increase of 9.7%</li><li>The state pension, along with means-tested and disability benefits, will each rise by 10.1%</li><li>The long-delayed lifetime cap on social care costs of £86,000, previously due to be introduced in October 2023, has been pushed back by another two years</li></ul><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Energy</span></p><ul><li>The government’s Energy Price Guarantee will be made less generous from April. A typical household will pay £3,000 per year for energy from then on, up from £2,100 currently</li><li>Additional support of £900 will be made available for households dependent on means-tested benefits; £300 will go to pensioner households; and £150 for those in receipt of disability benefits</li><li>The windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas firms has been increased from 25% to 35% and extended until March 2028. Electricity generators face a new 45% tax</li><li>No support for business energy bills is pencilled in beyond April at present</li></ul><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">&nbsp;</p></div></div><div style="text-align:left;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong></div></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Mon, 21 Nov 2022 08:35:27 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Asset Intelligence Comment: Liz Truss resigns – the investor’s view]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/asset-intelligence-comment-liz-truss-resigns-the-investors-view</link><description><![CDATA[By Kel Nwanuforo Well, there we have it folks: yet another Prime Minister bites the dust. Liz Truss is headed for the exit door, after less than two mon ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_X57GQKojSa667Ze8AzbutQ" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_a6mDhgkPTKKTIcg8uyRgOA" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_Jc-I6YWkToWxYBuVLawlrg" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_GE0Uzxr2Tfun2pV5RXgDdw" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_GE0Uzxr2Tfun2pV5RXgDdw"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div style="text-align:left;"><img src="/team/Untitled%20design%20-33-.png" style="text-align:center;"><em>By Kel Nwanuforo</em></div><div style="text-align:left;"><em><br></em></div><div style="text-align:left;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Well, there we have it folks: yet another Prime Minister bites the dust.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><span style="font-weight:700;">Liz Truss is headed for the exit door, after less than two months in office. By quite some distance, she will be the country’s shortest-serving Prime Minister, and the first since World War II never to lead her party in a general election.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Today’s developments represent a personal tragedy for Ms Truss and many will understandably feel sympathy for her on a human level. However, looking back at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.asset-intelligence.com/boris-resigns-what-investors-need-to-think-about/">our own comments</a>&nbsp;from the time Boris Johnson announced that he was going – a full three months ago – it is difficult to say that the trials Ms Truss and her government have faced were not foreseeable:</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><em>A clear theme has emerged among many of the contenders to replace Mr Johnson: promise tax cuts. Lots of them! And quickly! Yet, so far, less thought appears to have been given to the practicality or wisdom of this platform than to its popularity.</em></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><em>The simple fact – the obvious fact, even – is that putting more money in people’s pockets and in businesses’ bank accounts will add to total demand in the economy. Boosting demand, while supply chains remain strained by Ukraine and the aftershocks of the pandemic, will increase inflation. This is Economics 101…</em></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;"><em>… The capacity for a tax giveaway to fuel inflation further, necessitating even more interest rate hikes than are already expected, is clear.</em></p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">&nbsp;</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">The misjudgement of Ms Truss and her (first) Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on this crucial matter is why the country is now facing its third Prime Minister in less than two months.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">In the short period since Ms Truss announced her resignation, there has been no sign of panic in the markets – indeed, quite the opposite. At the time of writing, Sterling has in fact strengthened slightly against the US dollar, while the FTSE is up on the day. Meanwhile government borrowing costs, the real barometer of crisis the past few weeks, are down. It is likely that, at this point, markets view the uncertainty of a new leader as being preferable to the instability which Ms Truss had come to represent.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Although at the time of writing the precise mechanics of this latest leadership election remain unknown, the new Prime Minister will be in place by Friday 28 October.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Whoever emerges as the victor, it is practically a certainty that they will continue with the tight restraint on spending and taxation espoused by Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, over the past few days. We would view this as positive for investors in UK assets, given the demonstrated drawbacks of the alternative approach.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Looking slightly further out, given the unprecedented situation of a single parliamentary term taking in three Prime Ministers, opposition parties are understandably calling for a general election to be held immediately. There is no constitutional requirement for such to take place until January 2025 – though the political pressure for one may prove difficult to resist.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Unless perhaps the new Prime Minister is one… Boris Johnson. A flight of fancy? Maybe. But it seems fair to say that stranger things have happened. And quite recently too…</p></div></div><div>&nbsp;</div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:12:28 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Asset Intelligence Short update: Pound panic dies down]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/asset-intelligence-short-update-pound-panic-dies-down</link><description><![CDATA[By Kel Nwanuforo &nbsp; &nbsp; Britain’s financial markets have witnessed considerable volatility since Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng presented his ‘mini Bu ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_g2k3SC-gS1-N7oBZgTs_yw" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_h8Yw9tmeTNWYm7DD3GD9mw" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_gsL4MQhRT066ilrgBG4w5A" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_UwVUsyJeTnqcR19dKbl8yQ" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_UwVUsyJeTnqcR19dKbl8yQ"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div style="text-align:left;"><img src="/team/Typewriter.jpg"><em>By Kel Nwanuforo</em>&nbsp; &nbsp;</div><div style="text-align:left;"><br></div><div style="text-align:left;"><div style="color:inherit;"><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Britain’s financial markets have witnessed considerable volatility since Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng presented his ‘mini Budget’ last month. The pound dropped to all-time lows versus the US dollar and government borrowing costs rose sharply, with investors and traders questioning whether Dr Kwarteng’s package of tax cuts was sustainable or responsible.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Although the damage done to the mortgage market largely remains, a number of actions by policymakers appear to have steadied the ship.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">The Bank of England stepped in to buy government bonds to restore the stability of that market. Further, the government has now promised that the Chancellor will outline a plan to keep debt under control “shortly” – as opposed to the original date of 23 November – and that this will be published along with economic forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Truss and Kwarteng have also rowed back on their commitment to abolish the 45p rate of income tax for high earners, a policy arguably disliked by the markets as it was so unpopular with voters.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">These moves appear to have regained some measure of market confidence, for now at least, with Sterling touching its highest levels in around two weeks at the time of writing. What is certain is that the government’s next moves will continue to be watched closely by market participants. What is not is whether the Truss administration ever recovers its reputation with voters.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">Outside of the UK, financial markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions and fears over energy supplies. These are legitimate concerns and they may well continue to cause volatility, as they have done throughout 2022 so far.</p><p style="margin-bottom:10px;">However, we are always mindful that the historical record shows that equity markets overall tend to rise over time. While there will inevitably be some bumps along the way, our view is that staying the course and staying invested usually provides the best outcomes in the end. Over the course of more than fifteen decades, global markets have seen World Wars, pandemics, political chaos, financial crises and more – and most have trended upward through it all.</p></div></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2022 14:34:11 +0000</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Market Update September]]></title><link>https://www.asset-intelligence.com/blogs/post/market-update-september</link><description><![CDATA[<img align="left" hspace="5" src="https://www.asset-intelligence.com/stained-glass-1589648_1920.jpg"/>Information correct at time of recording. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and the incom ]]></description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="zpcontent-container blogpost-container "><div data-element-id="elm_xfiQSwbSR_WT03LUdtClpQ" data-element-type="section" class="zpsection "><style type="text/css"></style><div class="zpcontainer-fluid zpcontainer"><div data-element-id="elm_z4vW8tB7Su2NLp3Q5BRfTQ" data-element-type="row" class="zprow zprow-container zpalign-items- zpjustify-content- " data-equal-column=""><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_qMqHRwy9S8KXu2509nQ6IA" data-element-type="column" class="zpelem-col zpcol-12 zpcol-md-12 zpcol-sm-12 zpalign-self- "><style type="text/css"></style><div data-element-id="elm_duHkInfc2zbJ1GWmBMemBA" data-element-type="iframe" class="zpelement zpelem-iframe "><style type="text/css"> [data-element-id="elm_duHkInfc2zbJ1GWmBMemBA"].zpelem-iframe{ border-radius:1px; } </style><div class="zpiframe-container zpiframe-align-center"><iframe class="zpiframe " src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZslDEr623D0?si=1lGAIuYViPIMXxz3" width="560" height="315" align="center" allowfullscreen frameBorder="0"></iframe></div>
</div><div data-element-id="elm_3FHyqC8xQzuym-kA8zo14w" data-element-type="text" class="zpelement zpelem-text "><style> [data-element-id="elm_3FHyqC8xQzuym-kA8zo14w"].zpelem-text { border-radius:1px; margin-block-start:31px; } </style><div class="zptext zptext-align-center " data-editor="true"><div style="text-align:left;">Information correct at time of recording. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it could go down as well as up. The return at the end of the investment period is not guaranteed and you may get back less than you originally invested. Where referenced, market returns are quoted gross in Sterling terms.<br></div></div>
</div></div></div></div></div></div> ]]></content:encoded><pubDate>Fri, 30 Sep 2022 11:08:31 +0000</pubDate></item></channel></rss>